research memos · the trade log
Writings
Each memo takes a decision, an idea, or a habit, reconstructs the information available at the time, and asks whether it was any good. Written to be read in one sitting. No schedule, no doomscroll, no algorithm — view-source if you don't trust the rendering.
| no. | filed | memo | confidence | size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 003 | 2026-09-12 | The 200-Day Moving Average of a PersonYou are a noisy series. The day-to-day print is mostly bid-ask spread. | speculative | 4 min |
| 002 | 2026-08-03 | Confessions of a Curve FitterGive me enough parameters and I will show you a beautiful past. | high (in-sample) | 7 min |
| 001 | 2026-06-21 | Position Sizing for Irreversible DecisionsFull Kelly is for people who get to run the tape twice. | draft | 5 min |